US wine market: Big and soon to be the biggest
In a statement similar to those of my child (he is all about what is big, bigger and biggest), Jon Fredrikson proclaims that the US wine market is in very good shape and predicts it will be the biggest wine market in the world soon. Speaking at the Unified Grape and Wine Symposium yesterday, Fredrikson said "From the perspective of 3½ decades in the wine industry, I can assure
you right now that things have never been better in this market and the
future looks outstanding."
Here are some key points from his speech (as reported here):
- Americans purchased an estimated 300 million cases of wine last year, worth more than $25 billion (both records).
- Census numbers show drinking age adults in the United States is growing as well, from 164 million in 2000 to an estimated 184 million in 2010.
- If per capita consumption continues to go up 3% every year, the US will be the largest wine consumer in the world by 2010.
- Wine drinkers bought an estimated 187 million cases of California wine last year, 6.5 million more than 2004 and a 4 percent increase. At the same time they bought 8.4 million more cases of imported wine than in 2004, soaring to 81.5 million cases, an 11 percent increase.
- sales as Baby Boomers and 20-somethings bought more - and more expensive - wine.
Thoughts on this:
I am particularly struck by the fact that this report shows such broad based expansion. Fredrikson is saying is that the US wine market is not just growing in volume, but also in price (a weak, but useful indicator of quality). The price increases are being fueled by a. Baby Boomers and, most interestingly, by 20-somethings who are paying more for bottles than previous generations. This is most pleasing as it shows that the growth is not just targeted on those who are greying, but also on those who will be drinking wine for the next 60, 70 or 80 years.
Would think that this kind of data would keep investment in the US and those who import to the US up and support more pushes to improve the quality of the wines produced for consumption in the US.
Also very interested in the faster growth rate among non-US wines. Past years this kind of stat would be attributed to Australian wine, yet the growth over past years seems to indicate an even broader growth in who is successfully importing wine. Doubt you will see brilliant numbers from France as they announce annual industry wide results over the next few months, but quality players in France, Italy, Portugal and Spain clearly are improving their ability to pierce the US market. These import numbers may also be boosted by other countries such as South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina whose wines seem (anecdotally) to be getting more shelf space each year.
Please note: some of this comes from personal notes, but the majority of the info here comes from a very comprehensive article in today's Press Democrat titled "US Forecast to become world's #1 wine market."


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